Self-Annuitization, Ruin Risk in Retirement and Asset Allocation: The Annuity Benchmark

The present paper considers a retiree of a certain age with an initial endowment of investable wealth facing the following alternative investment opportunities. One possibility is to buy a single premium immediate annuity-contract. This insurance contract pays a life-long constant pension payment of a certain amount, depending e.g. on the age of the retiree, the operating cost of the insurance company and the return the company is able to realize from its investments. The alternative possibility is to invest the single premium into a portfolio of mutual funds and to periodically withdraw a fixed amount, in the present paper chosen to be equivalent to the consumption stream generated by the annuity . The particular advantage of this self annuitization strategy compared to the life annuity is its greater liquidity. However, the risk of the second opportunity is to outlive the income stream generated by this investment. The risk in this sense is specified by considering the probability of running out of money before the uncertain date of death. The determination of this personal ruin probability with respect to German mortality and capital market conditions is the objective of the following paper. This research was supported by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft, SFB 504, University of Mannheim. The authors are grateful to Ivica Dus for excellent research assistance and to the BVI (German Investment Association) for their support in data collection.